单体滑坡灾害危险性评价方法研究  

Study on the Method of Hazard Assessment for Single Landslide

作　　者：陈伟[1] 许强[1] 王新平[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都610059

出　　处：《地球与环境》2011年第4期561-566,共6页Earth and Environment

基　　金：西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险管制方法及示范(1212010814015)中国地质调查局项目

摘　　要：滑坡是我国山区城镇建设中危害较大的一种地质灾害,本文在综合分析国内外危险性评价方法的基础上,结合实例分析,提出了适用于单体滑坡的危险性评价。即根据蒙特卡洛法的基本原理及方法编制了滑坡的稳定性可靠度分析程序,计算不同工况下滑坡失稳的概率。同时,利用离散元软件模拟滑坡运动过程,进一步确定滑坡影响范围。危险性评价的结果可为滑坡灾害影响区的城镇建设及规划提供科学的依据,从而有效地规避风险和防灾减灾。Landslide has become the most important problem in urban construction since it can cause a large number of casualties and losses each year.Based on the risk assessment method of landslide hazards both at home and abroad,in this paper we conducted a case study and explored the method of hazard assessment for single landslide.Firstly,the analysis program of Monte-Carlo in accordance with the basic principles has been developed to predict the failure probability of singe landslide.At the same time,the authors made use of a professional software to simulate the trajectories of landslide and determine run-out distance and the range of hazardous areas in accordance with the topography data from the study area.Secondly,the results of hazard assessment can be used to provide the scientific basis for urban construction planning in the area of influence,so as to effectively avoid risks.

关 键 词：滑坡 破坏概率 危险范围 危险性评估 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]