我国集装箱港口吞吐能力供需平衡研究  

THE STUDY ON SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE FOR THROUGHPUT CAPACITY OF THE CONTAINER PORTS IN CHINA

作　　者：栾维新[1] 马新华[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,中国辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《经济地理》2011年第11期1774-1780,1792,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40871063)资助

摘　　要：受国际金融危机、国内经济结构调整等因素的影响,我国集装箱运输的供给和需求关系不断发展变化。基于状态空间模型对我国集装箱运输的需求进行预测,并从定性的角度分析我国GDP、外贸进出口额以及集装箱化率这三个因素对预测结果的影响,对定量预测结果进行了修正。然后,对我国集装箱港口规划的吞吐能力进行总结分析,并且指出我国集装箱港口吞吐能力的适应性问题。基于以上分析,对我国集装箱港口吞吐能力的供需平衡状况进行定量地评价,得出供大于求的结论,并阐述了可能造成的严重后果。最后,针对我国集装箱吞吐能力严重过剩的问题提出对策建议。Being affected by the international financial crisis,domestic economic restructuring and other factors, the supply and demand relationship of container transport is evolving in China.This paper forecasts the demand of container transportation based on state-space model,analyzes the impact of GDP,foreign trade volume and containerization rate from a qualitative view,and amends the quantitative prediction.Then,the planning throughput of container ports is analyzed in China,and adaptability capacity of container port is pointed out. Based on the above analysis,the supply and demand balance of container port capacity is quantitatively evaluated in China,the conclusion oversupplythe is drawn,and the possible serious consequences is described.Finally,this paper put forward some policy proposals for the excess capacity.

关 键 词：集装箱 吞吐能力 供需平衡 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]