2010年我国夏季降水异常气候成因分析及预测  

Cause and Prediction of Summer Rainfall Anomaly Distribution in China in 2010

作　　者：赵俊虎[1,2] 封国林[2] 王启光[1] 杨杰[1] 龚志强[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学》2011年第6期1069-1078,共10页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目40930952;41105055;公益性行业科研专项GYHY200806005;GYHY201006021;国家科技支撑计划2007BAC29B01;2009BAC51B04

摘　　要：对2010年我国夏季降水实况和预测进行回顾,笔者认为优化多因子汛期降水客观定量化预测方法因子组合中缺少前冬海温和积雪等外强迫因子可能是导致部分地区预测失败的主要原因,通过2010年夏季降水异常的气候成因诊断分析并结合诊断回报的结果论证了这一判断。同时发现前冬海温和积雪异常的气候背景下,亚洲夏季风系统各成员均发生不同程度的异常,其中西太平洋副热带高压异常最为显著,是造成2010年夏季降水异常的主要原因。最后,在这一研究基础上笔者提出了改进优化多因子汛期降水客观定量化预测方法的可能途径。In reviewing both the observed and predicted summer rainfall in China in 2010,the authors have proposed a judgment that the lack of external forcing factors such as pre-winter sea temperature and snow when using the objective and quantitative prediction method of summer precipitation based on changeable configuration of optimal multi-factors may lead to forecast failure in some regions.Through the diagnostic analysis of possible climate causes of abnormal summer precipitation combined with the results of hindcast,the authors have verified this judgment.In addition,abnormality occurs in varying degrees within each member of Asian summer monsoon system in the context of pre-winter sea temperature and snow anomalies,and the western Pacific subtropical high is the most significant,which mainly induces the abnormal summer precipitation.At last,the authors put forth the possible ways to improve this prediction method.

关 键 词：汛期降水 预测 诊断分析 海温距平 西太平洋副高异常 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]