基于人口、产业和用地结构的城镇化水平评估与解释——以长三角地区为例  

Comprehensive evaluation of the urbanization level in Yangtze River Delta Region:An index framework based on the population,economic structure and land use

作　　者：曹广忠[1] 边雪[1] 刘涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]香港大学地理系

出　　处：《地理研究》2011年第12期2139-2149,共11页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871075)

摘　　要：城镇化水平评估是关于区域城镇化问题的基础性研究。本文从城镇化进程中城乡结构变动的核心要素出发,从人口、产业、用地结构三个方面设计考察指标,并强调三个维度进程间的协调关系和适宜性的评价尺度。对长三角地区的实证研究发现,区域城镇化水平的空间格局以"中心-外围"为突出特征,这种结构以嵌套方式存在于多种空间尺度之下,随时间推进而更加明晰。回归分析显示这种空间特征已成为区域城镇化格局的本底结构,同时也受到全球化、市场和行政力量的影响。人口、产业和用地结构的城镇化指标值在空间差异方面既有相同点也有不同点,反映了长三角地区现阶段三个分指标城镇化进程的特点及其空间特征。对该地区城镇化综合评估及其解释表明,城镇化总体水平的提高不一定能同时促进子进程间的协调,快速城镇化阶段容易发生各子进程间不匹配的现象;这种不协调现象突出反映在较小的空间范围和评价尺度下,由此引发的健康城镇化相关议题应受到重视。The evaluation of the comprehensive urbanization level is a basic issue in the field of urban studies, which has been highly concerned and disputed for a long time. Studies in China have long been restricted by biased single indicators and too complex multi-indicator systems. This paper, considering the diversity of urbanization modes and suitability of multi-scales, proposes an index framework including three major aspects （population, economic structure and land use） and emphasizes the coordination relationships among them. A case study of the Yangtze River Delta Region has proven the effectiveness of this index framework. Empirical results manifest a typical ＂Center-Periphery＂ spatial pattern in this region, which exists under different spatial scales and evolves to be more distinct from 2000 to 2005. Regression analysis reveals that this spatial pattern is a prominent feature of this region and can also be attributed to economic level and foreign direct investment. Due to rapid development, it is difficult for this region to keep the three major aspects synchronous. A further examination finds that the coordination level among population, economic structure and land use tends to decline rather than ascend with the increase of integrated urbanization level. Besides, this desynchrony phenomenon is more significant in the county-scale analysis than in the prefecture-level city analysis, so the appropriate evaluating scale is important. Finally, the authors put emphasis on superiority of comprehensive evaluation in promoting the healthy urbanization, especially in this stage of rapid development for contemporary China.

关 键 词：城镇化水平 综合评估 协调性 长三角地区 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]