居民消费增长的路径选择——基于省际面板数据的分析  

Path of Increasing Household Consumption Expenditure: Evidence from China's 31 Provinces

作　　者：陈忠斌[1] 蔡东汉[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]武汉大学数学与统计学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2011年第6期84-92,112,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"扩大居民消费与经济增长方式转变研究"(09YJA790155);国家自然科学基金资助项目"具有人口转变时期人口变动的经济增长模型与仿真"(70871094)

摘　　要：文章利用1991～2009年中国31个省份城镇和农村居民的人口、消费支出和收入的数据,基于居民总消费分解模型,进行省际面板回归估计。实证结果表明,城镇居民消费支出增长对中国居民总消费增长的贡献率最大;农村居民消费支出增长的贡献率位列第二,但呈现出下降的趋势;农村向城镇人口迁移引起的消费支出增长的贡献率位列第三。考虑到城乡收入和消费支出的差异,文章认为,居民总消费增长的路径将主要依赖于城镇居民消费支出增长和农村向城市的人口迁移,并提出通过制度改革增加居民收入、放宽并完善人口迁移政策等建议。Based on population,consumption and income datum of urban and rural households from China's 31 Provinces,this paper develops aggregate household consumption expenditure model,which is decomposed into the sum of consumption expenditures of urban and rural households.Empirical analysis shows that the increase in urban household consumption expenditures,induced by the increase in annual per capita consumption expenditures,makes the biggest contribution to the increase in aggregate consumption expenditures.The increase in rural consumption expenditures plays a secondary role although it is showing a decline trend.The third contribution role in the growth of aggregate consumption expenditures comes from the consumption expenditures increase that attributed to immigration into urban regions.Considering the differences in income and consumption between urban and rural households,this paper concludes that the increase in aggregate household consumption is mainly determined by both urban household consumption growth and the increase in consumption induced by rural-urban migration.The paper suggests that the wage-orientation of income distribution will be beneficial to the increase in labor income.Meanwhile relaxing restrictions on migration into urban regions will advance the urbanization.Finally the police shall also include improving the pension plan and medical insurance in rural areas.

关 键 词：居民消费支出 人口迁移 城乡人均消费差距 城市化 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1