我国国债的最大可能发行空间估算与预测  

The Estimation and Forecast of the Maximum Possible Issuing Space of the Treasury Bonds of China

作　　者：王蓓[1] 管芹芹 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081 [2]中国农业银行驻马店分行,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《西部论坛》2011年第6期86-93,共8页West Forum

摘　　要：根据资产选择理论,国债的发行取决于国债利率和居民对国债资产需求的大小。目前,预防性储蓄存款是制约我国国债需求的关键因素,因此,以往反映居民应债能力的指标需重新考察。采用ARIMA模型对我国国债潜在需求能力进行估算和预测,结果表明,我国国债规模已经接近国债的潜在需求能力,国债实际发行空间不容乐观。由于我国当前社会保障体系尚不完善,居民储蓄中用于养老、医疗、教育等预防性储蓄的比重仍然较高;因此,完善社会保障体系,释放预防性储蓄存款是增大国债可发行空间的重要途径之一。Based on Asset Choice Theory, treasury bonds issuance depends on interest rates and bonds asset demand of residents, currently, precautionary savings is the key factor to restricting demand of treasury bonds, thus, we need to reexamine the indicators which reflect the ability of residents to buy the bonds in the past. Through the ARIMA model, we estimated and predicted the potential demand for treasury bonds of China, the results show that China＇ s treasury bonds scale is close to the potential demand and China＇ s debt bonds issuance space is not optimistic. Because China＇ s social security system is not complete at present, the proportion of precautionary savings for old-age-care, medical service and education and so on is still high, one of important methods for enlarging China＇ s treasury bonds issuance space is to complete social security system and to release precautionary savings.

关 键 词：资产选择理论 国债需求 国债发行空间 预防性储蓄 居民应债能力 社会保障体系 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]