基于序贯蒙特卡罗和well-being模型的风/柴/储能发电系统可靠性分析  

Reliability Analyses of Wind/Diesel/Storage Power System Based on Sequential Monte Carlo and Well-Being Model

作　　者：王银莎[1] 栗文义[1] 郭鑫[2] 王瑞刚[3] 刘鑫[1] 赵鹏[1] 巴根 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学电力学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010080 [2]内蒙古包头供电局,内蒙古包头014030 [3]内蒙古呼和浩特供电局,内蒙古呼和浩特010000 [4]The System Planning Department Manitoba Hydro Winnipeg Canada R3T0P4

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2011年第11期78-82,共5页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50967002)~~

摘　　要：介绍了序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法和well-being模型两种可靠性评估方法。通过研究储能容量和峰值负荷对系统的可靠性的影响,对两种可靠性评估方法进行比较分析。研究结果表明,采用well-being模型对系统进行可靠性评估较蒙特卡罗模拟法对系统的各个运行状态更加全面。This paper introduces two methods of reliability evaluation, which are Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation and well-being model. These methods of reliability evaluation are compared and analyzed by studying the influence of the energy peak load and battery capacity factors on power system reliability. The results show that well-being model is more detailed than Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation on evaluating different kinds of system operation state.

关 键 词：风/柴/储能发电系统 序贯蒙特卡罗模拟 well—being模型 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]