热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险区划  

Risk division of tropical cyclone affecting agricultural production in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：杨忠恩[1] 金志凤[2] 胡波 霍治国[4] 姚益平[2] 叶建刚 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017 [2]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [3]宁波市气象局,浙江宁波315012 [4]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [5]绍兴市气象局,浙江绍兴321000

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2011年第12期2821-2826,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B02);科技部农转项目(2008GB24160442)资助

摘　　要：依据自然灾害风险系统分析理论、热带气旋和农业经济资料,综合灾害风险指数法,在分析热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的暴露性、承灾体的脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的基础上,应用加权综合法得到不同网格的综合风险度指数。基于GIS技术,开展了热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性的最大值分布在浙江东南沿海,孕灾环境暴露性的最大值分布在丽水山区,承灾体脆弱性的最高值分布在杭州、绍兴市区以及兰溪市,防灾减灾能力的最高值主要分布在杭州、宁波、温州市区及其周边地区。综合考虑各因子的综合风险度,热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险可分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个等级。该研究可为浙江省农业结构调整和防灾减灾提供科学依据。Based on the natural disasters system risk theory and the disaster risk index method,and combining with tropical cyclone data and agricultural economic data,this paper analyzed the dangers of disaster-causing factors of tropical cyclone to agricultural production,the exposure of hazard-formative environments,the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,and the capacity of disasters prevention and mitigation in Zhejiang Province.The comprehensive risk indices of different grids were obtained by using the weighting comprehensive evaluation method.Based on GIS technology,the risk of tropical cyclone affecting the agricultural production in Zhejiang Province was spatially divided.The maximum risk of disaster-causing factors was distributed in the southeast coast of Zhejiang,the maximum exposure of hazard-formative environments and the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies occurred in the mountainous areas of Lishui City,and in Hangzhou,Lanxi,and Shaoxing and its surrounding areas,and the maximum disaster prevention and mitigation capacity mainly distributed in Hangzhou,Ningbo,and Wenzhou urban area and its surrounding areas.Considering the integrated risk level of all factors,the risk of tropical cyclone affecting the agricultural production in Zhejiang Province was divided into 5 levels,i.e.,high risk,sub-high risk,medium risk,sub-low risk,and low risk.This study could provide a scientific basis for the agricultural structure adjustment and the disasters prevention and mitigation in Zhejiang Province.

关 键 词：热带气旋 风险指数 农业风险分析 农业风险区划 浙江省 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]