城市化、产业结构与经济增长动态关系的实证研究——以深圳为例  

Urbanization,industry structure and economy growth motivative relation's de-monstrative research——take SZ as example

作　　者：李志德[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳职业技术学院,广东深圳518055 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《特区经济》2011年第11期19-22,共4页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：深圳职业技术学院青年创新项目<城市化与经济增长:深圳特区内外一体化背景下经济可持续快速增长的动力机制研究>的阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：本文运用协整、格兰杰因果检验和向量自回归模型,利用1979～2009年的年度经济数据对深圳城市化、产业结构和经济增长的关系进行层次递进的实证分析,实证研究表明:深圳城市化、产业结构和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;深圳城市化对于经济增长的影响效应显著强于经济增长对于城市化的影响;深圳的城市化水平与经济结构之间互为格兰杰因果关系;从长期来看,非农业产值所占比重对于经济增长具有较强的解释力,经济增长和非农业产值所占比重的提高均有助于优化产业结构。This study explores the dynamic relationships between urbanization,industrial structure and economic growth.To this end,some econometric methods such as the co-integration,Granger causality tests and IRF are used to analyze relevant data of Shenzhen during the period 1979 to 2009.Results show that there are long-term stable equilibrium relations between urbanization,industrial structure and economic growth.The effects of urbanization on economic growth are found to be more significant than the effects of economic growth on urbanization in Shenzhen.Empirical results suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between urbanization and industrial structure.In the long run,the proportion of non-agricultural output value has a better descriptive ability for economic growth.It is also found that economic growth and the increase of non-agricultural output value play a significant and positive role in the optimization of industrial structure.

关 键 词：城市化 产业结构 经济增长 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.27F121.3F127