西北诸河区域经济社会发展需水量预测  

Water Demand Prediction of Social and Economic Development of the River Regions in the Northwest China

作　　者：肖素君[1] 李清杰[1] 刘争胜[1] 王慧杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,郑州河南450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第11期77-80,共4页Yellow River

摘　　要：根据西北诸河经济社会发展特点和水资源条件,采用多种方法对比分析,预测经济社会发展趋势及规模,考虑现状用水、一般节水、强化节水和超常节水4种节水模式,分别预测区域经济社会发展相应的需水量,并从用水效率、用水定额、用水结构、用水增长率等多方面分析用水合理性。经分析,强化节水模式下,到2030年西北诸河河道外需水量为657.11亿m3,预测结果基本合理,能够真实反映西北诸河未来的用水需求。According to the characteristics of the social and economic development and water resources conditions of rivers in the northwest China,we use several methods to compare and analyze,predict trends and scale of social and economic development.Besides,considering the four water-saving modes（the status of water,general water conservation,water conservation and enhance water-saving）,we predict water demands of various departments,and analyze the rationality of water use from different aspects,such as the efficiency of water use,water-use quota,the structure of water use,and the growth rate of water use.Based on the above analysis,we conclude that the water demand outside the rivers is 65.711 billion m3 up to 2030 by the mode of water conservation,the prediction is reasonable,and it can give a true reflect of the future water demands of rivers in the northwest China.

关 键 词：需水量 发展指标 节水模式 西北诸河 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]