基于金融创新的投资者决策突变与央行危机救助  

Investor Decision-Making Mutation and Central Bank Crisis Salvation Based on Financial Innovation

作　　者：毛菁[1] 陈一博[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《广东金融学院学报》2011年第6期72-82,共11页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance

摘　　要：基于一个纳入奈特不确定性的决策模型,从金融创新及其产生的投资者不确定性出发,探讨金融危机中投资者决策突变和央行危机救助的时点与方式,结果表明,金融创新的复杂性增加了投资者的不确定性,在不了解金融创新工具真实风险的情况下只好选择以应付最坏情况的方案来应对冲击,央行危机救助的时点应放在投资者对未来的不确定性突然增加并开始调整原有策略的时刻,救助的主要措施是承诺在一定条件下购买资产或注入流动性,从而降低投资者的不确定性,避免投资者决策突变成为群体行为。When the impact event occurs, the investor decision - making changes abruptly. This article, based on the investors＇decision-making model, aims to cope with worst -case program and design a new investment model, finally achieves the evolution of events during the financial crisis. Through the analysis on the investors＇ decision -making model, the paper studies the time point and the way of crisis salvation from the central bank. In this paper,we studied, on the central bank crisis beforehand salvation, the central bank should guide the financial institutions to carry out adequate investor education of the innovative tools and limiting the overall size to reduce the probability of a crisis destructive in the use of innovative tools. And on salvation after the financial crisis, the time point of central bank＇ s salvation should be placed on the very moment when there is a sudden increase of tmcertainty about the future and the investors begin to adjust the original strategy. The main measure is committed to relief under certain conditions, to purchase assets or inject liquidity, thereby reducing investor uncertainty, prompting investors change the escaping strategy, at least avoiding the individual investors＇ decision-making mutation turning into group behavior.

关 键 词：决策模型 金融创新 不确定性 央行危机救助 

分 类 号：F831.59[经济管理—金融学]