新疆乌-昌地区干湿气候要素时空变化分析  

Spatiotemporal Variations in Dry-Wet Climatic Variables over the Urumqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang

作　　者：普宗朝[1] 张山清[1] 宾建华 窦新英 

机构地区：[1]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,乌鲁木齐830001

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第12期2314-2322,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：新疆气象局科研项目:"气候变化对新疆农业热量资源的影响"(编号:201127)

摘　　要：利用新疆乌鲁木齐市和昌吉回族自治州16个气象站1961年-2009年的逐月气候资料,使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测以及基于ArcGis的混合插值法对年降水量、潜在蒸散量、干湿指数、水分亏缺量等干湿气候要素的变化趋势、突变特征以及各要素多年平均值、突变前后变化量的空间分布进行了分析,结果表明:乌昌地区年降水量和年干湿指数在空间分布上表现为"山区大,平原小;西部大,东部小"的格局,年潜在蒸散量和水分亏缺量表现为"平原大,山区小;东部大,西部小"的格局。近49a,乌昌地区年降水量和干湿指数分别以13.843mm/10a和0.016/10a的倾向率呈极显著(p=0.001)的上升趋势,并分别于1990年和1987年发生了突变性的增大;年潜在蒸散量和水分亏缺量分别以-16.07mm/10a和-29.909mm/10a的倾向率呈极显著的下降趋势,并分别于1983年和1986年发生了突变性的减小,气候总体呈较明显的变湿趋势。但各地的变化具有明显的区域性差异,突变后较突变前,年降水量和干湿指数的增加幅度表现为"山区大,平原小",年潜在蒸散量和年水分亏缺量的减小幅度表现为"中部平原大,南部山区和北部沙漠边缘地带小"的空间分布格局。Urumqi City and Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture （Urumqi-Changji region） is located in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and southem edge of the Junggar Basin of Xinjiang. The precipitation is extremely less and evaporation is high over this region. Dry climate and water shortage are the major factors restricting local socio-economic development, especially agricultural production and environmental protection. To investigate characteristics of dry-wet climate change in the past 49 years in the Urumqi-Changji region, based on monthly climate data from 1961 to 2009 at 16 meteorological stations across the Urumqi-Changji region, fundamental characteristics of spatial-temporal change in various dry-wet climate variables, such as annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration （ETo）, dry-wet index, and water deficiency, were comprehensively analyzed using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation, and inverse distance weighting interpolation. Results show that the dry-wet climate is completely different for varying regions in the Urumqi-Changji region. In general, the annual precipitation and dry-wet index are larger in the Tianshan Mountain areas and western areas than in plain and eastem areas. ETo and water deficiency are generally larger in plain and eastem areas than in the Tianshan mountain areas and westem areas in the Urumqi-Changji region. A climate wetting trend was evident in recent 49 years. The annual precipitation and dry-wet index showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 13.843 mrn/10a and 0.016/10a, respectively, showing a significantly abrupt increase in 1990 and 1987, respectively. ETo and water deficiency showed a significantly decreasing trend at a rate of-16.07mm/10a and-29.909mm/10a, respectively, with abrupt decreases occurring in 1983 and 1986, respectively. In general, the climate showed an obvious wetting trend over the recent 49 years. The increasing range of precipitation and the dry-we

关 键 词：乌昌地区 干湿气候 时空变化 GIS 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]