内生框架下出口贸易与区域经济增长的关系研究——基于地理加权回归模型的实证分析  

Studies on the Relationship between Export and Regional Economic Growth under the Endogenous Growth Framework:An Empirical Analysis Based on GWR Model

作　　者：楚尔鸣[1] 许先普[1] 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2011年第12期32-38,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<货币政策结构效应的微观基础及协调性研究>(71073133)

摘　　要：采用空间计量经济学方法,通过2008年中国大陆31个省份的宏观经济数据,运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,在内生经济增长框架下就出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。研究表明:经济增长存在显著的空间相关性;在中国大陆,要素投入尤其是资本投入对经济增长的贡献整体上高于出口贸易对经济增长的贡献,且在省域间产生了显著差别;出口贸易主要通过贸易权重和外溢效应等渠道对经济增长产生影响,整体上看,贸易权重与经济增长负相关,外溢效应与经济增长正相关。根据研究结论提出了相关政策建议。This paper analyzed the relationship between China＇s export and economic growth by using spatial econometric methods and GWR model in 2008.The results are as follows： Firstly,there is significant spatial dependence in economic growth in China.Secondly,factor inputs,especially capital input,have a greater effect on economic growth than export in China.Thirdly,export play an important role in economic growth by trade share channel and spillover effect channel,as a whole,the trade share negatively correlated with economic growth,while spillover effect positively correlated with economic growth.Finally,we put forth some policy suggestion.

关 键 词：出口贸易 区域经济增长 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]