随机预测控制模型及其在水资源可持续中的应用  

Application of Stochastic Predictive Control Model to Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources

作　　者：黄翀胤[1] 罗灿[1] 赵勇[1] 韩守东[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学系统工程研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第12期16-20,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071063);高等院校自主创新基金资助项目(2010MS018)

摘　　要：针对国内需水量的日益增长与可供利用水资源的不断减少之间的矛盾,根据水量、水价及水质间的关系,结合普罗米修斯模型探讨了面向水资源可持续利用的随机预测控制与仿真模型,以新丰江水库直饮水工程为例,预测了10年内水资源的配置方案。研究结果表明,该模型可为水资源可持续利用的相关政策分析提供定量参考。For solving the contradiction between the growing water requirement and the decreasing available water re sources, according to the relationships among water quantity, water price and water quality, this paper discusses a sto chastic predictive control and simulation model for sustainable utilization of water resources by combining Prometheus model. Taking the drinking water project of Xinfengjiang Reservoir for an example, the allocation plan of water resources in 10-years is predicted. The results show that the proposed model can provide a quantitative reference for the related policy analysis of sustainable utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源 可持续 随机模型预测控制 仿真 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]