滠水河流域经济环境协调发展系统动力学模拟  

System Dynamics Simulation for the Coordinated Development of Sheshuihe Watershed Economy and Environment

作　　者：袁绪英[1,2] 曾菊新[2] 吴宜进[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉430079 [2]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2011年第6期84-88,101,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08BZS047);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2008ZX07526-004-003)

摘　　要：从系统分析的视角出发,根据滠水河流域的自然与社会经济特点,构建经济环境协调发展系统动力学模型,模型主要参数包括人口、GDP、城市化水平、产业结构、水资源可利用量、水环境容量等。通过模型正负反馈环进行因果关系分析,考虑人口、资源、环境与经济之间的互动与制约关系,进行子系统划分,并确定人口平均增长率、服务业废水率、工业废水率以及水土流失率为敏感性因素,以敏感因素为核心,设计3种不同情景,得出经济、环境协调发展情景为最优方案。通过对不同发展情景的分析与比较,提出滠水河流域有必要采取措施控制人口增长,促进经济发展,保护生态环境,实现该流域经济与环境协调发展。From the function of system analyses and on the basis of nature and social economy of Sheshuihe river, the System Dynamic Model （SD Model ） for the coordinated development of economy and environment has been established. The SD Model parameter includes population, GDP, urbanization level, industry frame, availa- ble water resource, water environment capacity and so on. Considering the relation of population, resources, environment and economy, Causality has been analyzed through plus-minus feedback loop. Subsystem is set off. Average growth of population, wasted water rate of serve growth, wasted water rate of industry growth and soil erosion rate are chosen as sensitive factors which are the kernel variable. In order to choose the optional scenario of coordination development of Sheshuihe Watershed economy and environment, three scenarios are designed. As a result of analysis and comparison of different scenarios, it is necessary to control the population growth, to protect the ecological environment and to realize the coordination development of economy and environment in Sheshuihe Water-shed.

关 键 词：协调发展 系统动力学 模拟 滠水河流域 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]