基于自主体的经济危机模拟  

Agent-Based Simulation on Economic Crisis

作　　者：顾高翔[1] 王铮[1,2] 姚梓璇 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [3]慈湖中学,浙江宁波315031

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2011年第4期27-35,共9页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(70933002);中国科学院创新工程重点项目(KACX1-YW-0907)

摘　　要：基于自主体模拟的建模工具,结合序列创新理论,将创新体系引入自主体模型之中,开发了基于自主体的宏观经济过程模拟系统,并使用该系统用于对经济危机进行模拟,通过比较不同的金融政策对经济危机发生的原因和解决经济危机的办法做了初步的探究。研究结果表明,政府采取过分宽松的金融政策尽管可以在一段时间内使市场一片繁荣,社会产出快速增长,但是也会造成严重的通货膨胀,是金融危机乃至经济危机的产生的重要的原因。而在经济危机发生之后,开始可以采取适当的货币宽松政策,恢复就业、创新,提高生产技术,接着要稳定货币,防止震荡性通货膨胀。In this paper, we developed an agent-based simulation system of macroeconomical process which based on ABS modeling tools and led sequential innovation theory into this model. Then it was used to simulate economic crisis and do a preliminary research into the reasons of eco- nomic crisis. Besides we tried to dig out the way of eliminating crisis by comparing different mo- netary policies in simulation. The results show that there will be a thriving market and a rapid growth of social output in case of an excessively loose monetary policy been adopted by govern- ment. However, loose policy will bring serious inflation which is a critical reason of the genera- tion of financial crisis or even economic crisis. When economic crisis begins, the government should take an appropriate monetary policy to refresh the employment and innovation, and im- prove the technology. And next step would be stabilizing currency which aims at preventing the market from shocking inflation.

关 键 词：基于自主体模拟 经济危机 序列创新 政策 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学] N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]