不同历时设计暴雨组合的风险率分析  

Analysis of Risk Probability for Design Rainstorm Combinations of Different Durations

作　　者：陈子燊[1] 刘曾美[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]华南理工大学水利水电工程系,广东广州510640

出　　处：《水文》2011年第4期12-17,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金资助项目(50839005);广东省水利创新研究项目(2009-41)

摘　　要：基于Copula理论与方法,以广州1951~2010年的日降水为例,以最大日降水量为基准,构建最大日降水量（W1）与历时3日（W3）降水量,最大日降水量（W1）与历时7日（W7）降水量两个组合的联合概率分布模式。经择优检验建立了边缘分布为广义极值和P-III型的Gumbel-Hougaard Copula两变量联合分布。随之,推算了两个组合降水的同现重现期和设计暴雨值。最后,依据条件分布计算了在大于或小于年最大日降水量特定设计暴雨条件下超过历时3日或7日降水设计值的风险率。Based on the Copula theory and method,the joint probability distribution models between annual maximum daily rainstorm and three-day or seven-day rainstorm amounts were build with the maximum daily rainstorm as a reference using the daily rainfall data in Guangzhou City from 1951 to 2010 as a case study.Firstly,the Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function selected by the goodness-of-fit test was used to build the joint distributions which are the marginal distributions of generalized extreme value and Pearson type III;Then,the co-occurrence return periods and the design rainstorm values were calculated;Finally,the risk probabilities of exceed successive three-day or seven-day rainstorm amounts were calculated based on conditional distribution.

关 键 词：设计暴雨 COPULA函数 风险率 广州 

分 类 号：TV133[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]