大气环流模式在松花江流域的适用性评价  

Assessment on Performance of Different General Circulation Models in Songhuajiang River Basin

作　　者：李发鹏[1] 徐宗学[1] 刘星才[1] 李秀萍[1] 刘兆飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《水文》2011年第6期24-31,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)“气候变化对我国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策”(2010CB428400)

摘　　要：不同GCMs的输出变量在区域上的表现差异较大。以11个统计特征量为基础,构建了基于秩评分的评价方法,分别对比分析了21个GCMs的17个输出变量在松花江流域与ERA-40再分析资料的吻合程度,以秩评分进行了定量评价。结果显示:不同GCMs对高空气象变量的模拟表现与地面气候要素的模拟表现并不一致,IPSL:CM4、GISS:ER、HadCM3和CSIRO:MK30在松花江流域高空气象变量模拟方面表现相对较好,而CSIRO:MK30、CGCM3.1_T63、GFDL:CM21和BCCR:BCM20在地面气候要素的模拟方面表现相对较好。综合评分结果显示,IPSL:CM4、CSIRO:MK30、GISS:ER和BCCR:CM20在松花江流域的综合表现相对较好。There are great differences in the regional outputs from different GCMs. With the combination of 11 statistical characteristics, a score-based muhi-criteria method was developed to assess /he performance of 21 GCMs with 5 climatic variables （air temperature, relative humidity, zonal wind speed, meridian wind speed, geopotential height） at 3 high-altitudes （850hPa, 700hPa, 500hPa） and precipitation, air temperature in the Songhuajiang River Basin. The results show that there is not consistency for GCMs＇ performance between high-altitude variables and ground climatic variables, IPSL：CM4, GISS：ER, HadCM3 and CSIRO： MK30 show relatively better performance for high-altitude meteorological variables, while CSIRO：MK30, CGCM3.1_T63, GFDL：CM21 and BCCR：BCM20 show relatively better performance for ground climatic variables in the Songhuajiang River Basin. Comprehen- sive assessment shows that the GCMs with relatively better performance in the Songhuajiang River Basin are IPSL：CM4, CSIRO： MK30, GISS：ER and BCCR：CM20.

关 键 词：GCMS ERA-40 适用性 松花江 

分 类 号：P435.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]