社会经济因素对林业经济发展的影响分析：以江西为例  

Research on Socioeconomic Impact on Forestry Economic Development: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province

作　　者：刘灵芝[1] 刘欣[2] 黄悦怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉430070 [2]北京农业职业学院,北京100093

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2011年第6期72-75,共4页World Forestry Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(09CJY021);国家自然科学基金(40901288);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(07JC790034);华中农业大学科技创新基金(0900201010);湖北农村发展研究中心招标课题(ZBB1105)

摘　　要：分析影响林业经济发展的主要因素,有利于深入研究林业发展状况,找出其中存在的问题并提出对策建议。文中以江西为例,利用1978—2009年的时间序列数据,采取逐步回归分析方法,对影响林业总产值的社会经济因素进行量化分析。结果显示,农村居民人均年消费、本年度营林完成投资、粮食播种面积、地区生产总值和粮食作物产量对林业总产值的影响显著。其中,农村居民人均年消费与林业产值呈负相关,其他均为正效应。建议通过增加投资、提高森林质量、加快社会转型来促进林业经济的发展。The analysis on main impact factors of forestry economic development can help further the research on forestry development state, find out the problems and gives some countermeasures and suggestions. This paper used the time series data in 1978 -2009 and stepwise regression analysis method, to make quantitative research on socioeconomic factors that influenced the total output value of forestry. The results showed that per capita consumption of rural residents, completed investment in forest establishment in the year, the grain sowing area, regional GDP and grain crop yield had significant influence on the total output value of forestry. Among them, per capita consumption of rural residents and forestry production value were negatively correlated, while the others showed positive effect. So it should increase investment, raise the quality of forest and speed up social transformation for promoting forestry economic development.

关 键 词：林业总产值 社会经济影响因素 逐步回归 

分 类 号：F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]