聚氯乙烯树脂层对球罐爆炸碎片连锁破坏概率的影响  

Influence of protective layer of polyvinylchloride resin on domino effect risk caused by fragments from spherical vessel explosion

作　　者：孙东亮[1] 蒋军成[1] 张明广[1] 王志荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学城市建设与安全工程学院,安全工程研究所,江苏省城市与工业安全重点实验室,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《南京工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期57-61,共5页Journal of Nanjing Tech University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71001051,50904037);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2007BAK22B04);南京工业大学青年教师学术基金资助项目(39714005)

摘　　要：依据塑性理论分析聚氯乙烯树脂保护层存在条件下的碎片抛射与破坏目标的过程,提出碎片穿透保护层的厚度与动能消耗的计算模型,并根据碎片抛射方程确定碎片碰撞及引发目标连锁破坏的概率。以球罐为例,应用Monte-Carlo法模拟了保护层对爆炸碎片连锁破坏效应的影响规律。结果表明:保护层可占有较大的破坏概率,显著减少目标破坏的可能性,目标连锁破坏概率由于目标穿透破坏概率的下降而平均降低了约4个数量级。偏差分析显示,保护层对连锁破坏概率的降低程度超过了99%。碎片连锁破坏概率随保护层厚度的变化呈现指数递减关系。研究结果可为球罐防护措施的合理选材与设计提供理论依据,为降低多米诺效应出现的频率,应最大限度地避免罐体本身与碎片的接触。The fragment flight and the damage target were investigated under conditions of the protective layer of polyvinylchloride（PVC） resin based on the plasticity concepts.The models for calculating the penetration depth to the protective layer and the dissipated kinetic energy of the fragment were proposed,and the domino effect risk after impact was confirmed by the movement equations of the fragment.A spherical vessel with fragment projection was taken as an example to explore the influence of the protective layer on the domino effect risk by Monte-Carlo simulations.The results showed that the protective layer occupied the larger probability of rupture and cut down the failure possibility of target;the domino effect risk was lowered by an average of about 4 orders of magnitude due to the reduction of the failure probability of the impacted target.The relative deviations demonstrated that the protective layer reducted more than 99% on the domino effect risk.The risk occurrence of the domino effect decreased exponentially according to the thickness of the protective layer.The results provided theoretical basis for the reasonable choice of materials and design of the protective measures of spherical tank.The interaction between the tank and the fragment should be avoided to stop the domino effect.

关 键 词：球罐爆炸碎片 连锁破坏概率 聚氯乙烯树脂层 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]