关中地区耕地压力指数分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Pressure Index of Cultivated Land in the Central Shaanxi Area

作　　者：李倩倩[1] 陈印军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2011年第29期229-234,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划"全国耕地调控技术综合集成研究"(2006BAD05B10)

摘　　要：为了了解关中地区的耕地利用状况,给合理利用耕地资源提供参考依据,运用耕地压力指数模型,分析了该地区1990—2009年最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化情况及成因,然后对2010—2020年的耕地压力指数进行预测。结果显示,1990年以来关中地区最小人均耕地面积波动减少,但因实际人均耕地面积的减少速度与最小人均耕地面积的减少速度不同,耕地压力总体呈波动状态,最近2年有下降趋势。预测表明,科技投入对减少最小人均耕地面积的作用大于人口增长和经济发展对减少实际人均耕地面积的作用,2010—2020年关中地区耕地压力指数将逐渐减小,但始终大于1,耕地仍存在压力。In order to understand the cultivated land use status of the central Shaanxi area and provide reference for rational utilization of cultivated land resources,this paper analyzed the causes and variation of the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and pressure index of cultivated land in this region during 1990 to 2009 using the pressure index of cultivated land model,then predicted the pressure index in the coming year of 2010 to 2020.The results showed that,since 1990,the minimum area of cultivated land per capita in the central Shaanxi area reduced volatility,due to the different reduced speed of the realistic cultivated land per capita and the minimum area of cultivated land per capita,the pressure index of cultivated land was fluctuation and downward trend in the last two years.Projections indicated that,the effect of science and technology investment to reduce the minimum area of cultivated land per capita would be greater than of population growth and economic development to reduce the realistic cultivated land per capita,and 2010-2020,the pressure index of cultivated land in the central Shaanxi area would decrease gradually,but always greater than 1,there would be pressure on cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地压力指数 最小人均耕地面积 实际人均耕地面积 关中地区 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]