18世纪中国南北方市场整合程度的比较——利用清代粮价数据的研究  

Market Integration in Southern and Northern China in the Eighteenth Century:A Study Based on Grain Price Data in Qing Dynasty

作　　者：颜色[1] 刘丛[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院 [2]美国亚利桑那大学经济系

出　　处：《经济研究》2011年第12期124-137,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科青年基金(项目号:09CJL009);教育部人文社科研究青年基金(项目号:09YJC790012);北大光华-金光西部发展研究基金的资助

摘　　要：利用从第一历史档案馆获得的清代1742—1795年15省的府级主要粮食品种月度价格数据,本文通过回归和协整分析比较了清代南北方市场整合程度的差异,发现18世纪时南方粮食市场的整合程度显著优于北方市场。在对区域面积、粮食品种进行稳健性检验并分析了天气冲击和政府干预等因素以后,本文发现南北方差异依然显著。而交通条件,特别是水路交通的差异是导致南北方市场整合程度差异的重要因素。由于自然条件限制,北方河流,特别是黄河,无法像南方河流那样促进交通条件改善和市场发育,是导致南北方市场整合差异的重要原因。Using monthly grain price data of 189 prefectures in 15 provinces from 1742 to 1795, we compare market integration of in southern and northern China in the 18 th century. With regression and cointegration analysis, we find that in the eighteen century, the southern markets were more integrated than the northern markets. Robustness checks on region size and grain types, as well as analysis on weather shocks and the role of governments, show that our results are stable. Furthermore, we find that different transportation conditions, especially waterway conditions, contribute to the regional difference of market integration. Constrained by their natural conditions, rivers in the north, especially the Yellow River, were not able to facilitate market development as much as rivers in the south.

关 键 词：粮价 清代 市场整合 南北差异 交通 

分 类 号：K249[历史地理—历史学] F329[历史地理—中国史]