AREM模式的热启动数值模拟——以2007年7月13日暴雨过程为例  

A Numerical Study on Hot Start AREM Model——Taking Rainstorm Process on 13 July 2007 as a Case

作　　者：王叶红[1] 赵玉春[1] 李红莉[1] 崔春光[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《高原气象》2011年第6期1488-1504,共17页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项(GYHY(QX)2007-6-12;GYHY200906010);国家973项目(2004CB418307);国家自然科学基金项目(40575011;41075034;40975025;41075038);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项武汉暴雨研究所1009课题共同资助

摘　　要：在成功移植LAPS云分析系统的基础上,实现了AREM暴雨中尺度数值预报模式的有云状态运行,并以2007年7月13日我国中部地区的一场大暴雨过程为例,进行了AREM模式冷、热启动的数值试验研究。结果表明:(1)模式冷启动0～6h内模拟的降水强度明显偏弱,通常只有不足5mm的降水产生;而模式热启动在模式积分的初始阶段就产生出较强的降水,改善了模式的SPIN-UP问题。(2)模式热启动对0～6h内云和降水预报的影响比较显著,之后影响减小,但对6～24h降水预报仍具有正影响。(3)在暖云方案下,云水初值比雨水初值对降水预报的影响更为显著。The mesoscale numerical model AREM is run in an initial condition of cloud from LAPS（Local Analysis and Prediction System） cloud analysis system,which is successfully transplanted by Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain.Numerical experiments of cold and hot start by AREM model are conducted for a heavy rain event occurring in the middle of China on 13 July 2007.The results are as follows：（1） the simulated 0~6 h precipitation intensity with cold start is weak,which is usually less than 5 mm.Whereas,severe precipitation occurs in the initial period of model integration when the AREM model is run in a condition of hot start,and the model SPIN-UP problem is improved.（2） The hot start model has greater impact on the first 6 h cloud and precipitation forecast than that of later time.However it still has positive impact on 6~24 h precipitation forecast.（3） Under the warm cloud scheme,the initial value of cloud water has more obvious impact on precipitation forecast than that of rain water.

关 键 词：AREM 热启动 LAPS系统 暴雨 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]