GRAPES RUC系统模拟研究及应用试验  

Simulation Study and Application Experiment of GRAPES RUC System

作　　者：郝民 徐枝芳 陶士伟 朱立娟 王雨 龚建东 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2011年第6期1573-1583,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家公益性行业科技专项(GYHY200806003;GYHY201006001;GYHY201106044)资助

摘　　要：利用GRAPES RUC(Rapid-Update Cycle)同化和预报系统,分析了2009年6月3日发生在河南的飑线过程,以及2009年汛期连续3个月的不同循环周期同化结果的预报效果对比。结果表明,GRAPES RUC同化预报系统能更加有效地同化多时次的观测资料,抓住快速变化的强对流天气系统。对于飑线这类突发性强对流天气过程,该系统对强风位置和强度有一定的预报能力,同时对强对流产生的降水区位置、强度也有较好的刻画能力。GRAPES RUC逐时预报系统对暴雨以上量级的降水预报有较强的优势,这为强天气过程预报提供了参考依据,也为GRAPES RUC系统进一步改进和完善奠定了基础。Using GRAPES RUC（Rapid-Update Cycle） assimilation system,the severe convection process of squall line in Henan Province was analyzed on 3 June 2009,and the 3-month comparison of different assimilation cycles for the flood season of 2009 was also experimented.The results showed that GRAPES RUC assimilation and forecast system could more effectively assimilate the multi-time observation data,to capture the rapidly changing severe convective weather system.Especially,the hour-to-hour forecast of GRAPES RUC had strong advantage in the forecast of rainstorm,which provides a very helpful reference for the forecasters to improve the forecase of severe weather process.It also implements a base for the further improvement for GRAPES RUC system.

关 键 词：GRAPES 快速更新循环 飑线过程 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]