基于综合火险指数的森林火险预报  

Forest fire danger forecast based on comprehensive fire danger index

作　　者：黄宝华[1,2] 孙治军[1] 周利霞 史淑一[1] 马玉强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学(烟台),山东烟台264670 [2]烟台市地理信息中心,山东烟台264003 [3]烟台市自然博物馆,山东烟台264003

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2011年第12期1181-1185,共5页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：烟台市科技局科技项目"基于MODIS数据火险预警研究"(2009163)

摘　　要：构建综合火险指数模型,该模型包括4个部分:潜在植被火险指数(FPI)、归一化天气火险指数(NWDI)、归一化地形火险指数(NTDI)、人为火险指数(HDI)。详细介绍模型各部分的计算方法。将该模型与遥感、GIS相结合,开发综合森林火险指数预报系统,制作2011年1-8月山东省综合火险指数图,并与实际火灾发生情况进行对比,结果表明,该模型能够取得较好的预测结果。A comprehensive fire danger index model was built, which includes four parts： the potential vegetation fire danger index （FPI） ; normalized weather index （NWDI） ; normalization topographic fire danger index （NTDI） ; anthropogenic fire danger index（HDI）. The calculation methods of each part were introduced in details. Combining the model with remote sensing and GIS, the comprehensive forest fire danger index forecasting system was developed, and the comprehensive fire danger index maps of Shandong from 2011 January to August were made. By comparing the maps with fire accidents actually happened, the model was proved to forecast more accurately.

关 键 词：森林火灾 火险指数 GIS 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X928.03