重大生物事件复杂系统分析及其综合应急框架研究  

Analysis of a complex system for major bio-events and framework research for its synthetic prevention and control

作　　者：祖正虎[1] 许晴[1] 张文斗[1] 孙建中[1] 郑涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院生物工程研究所,北京100071

出　　处：《军事医学》2011年第11期805-808,813,共5页Military Medical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573120;70773118;90924019);"艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治"国家科技重大专项(2008ZX10403);全军医学科研"十一五"计划杰出人才项目(06J022);中国工程院重大专项"新时期我国生物安全战略与法律法规研究"(2008-ZD-03)

摘　　要：在深入研究重大生物事件(生物袭击、生物恐怖、重大传染病)应急防控的一些典型研究成果的基础上,基于系统学思想分析了重大生物事件演化过程开放性、复杂性、高维性、不确定性及涌现性的整体特性,对系统结构和功能进行分析;提出了应对重大生物事件的"应急准备—监测预警—灾害评估—救援处置—恢复重建"的综合框架,明确各阶段任务面临的主要风险与需求,以及需要研究的核心科学问题,为建立重大生物灾害事件的综合防控体系奠定理论基础。Based on typical findings of significant research on prevention and control decision making for major bioevents（bioattack,bioterrorism and major infectious diseases）,and on the system theory,we analyzed all the characteristics of the complex system for major bioevents,such as openness,complexity,high dimension,uncertainty,emergence,and the structure and function of the system.Based on this,we propose the framework of prevention and control,involving the stage of emergency preparation,monitoring and early warning,disaster assessment,support disposal and recovery and reconstruction.The main risk and demand in each stage as well as urgent scientific problems are identified.Thus,the knowledge of emergency prevention and control of major bioevents is updated and the basis against major bioevents is laid.

关 键 词：生物恐怖 恐怖袭击 传染病 复杂系统 防御机制 生物安全 

分 类 号：E929[军事—军事装备学]