近51年松花江流域温度变化趋势分析  

Change trend of temperature in the Songhua River Basin during the past 51 years

作　　者：俞方圆[1] 郑粉莉[1,2] 李志[1] 申健[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2011年第5期242-246,252,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：农业部948项目(2010-S16)

摘　　要：利用1958～2008年松花江流域34个气象站的日温度数据,采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、突变法和森斜率估计法,定量地分析了松花江流域年平均温度和季节温度的年际变化、变化趋势及变化幅度。研究结果表明,1958～2008年间松花江流域年平均温度表现为显著的上升趋势,51年来共上升了2℃,上升趋势在1990年发生了显著的突变。在季节变化方面,1958～2008年间松花江流域冬季平均温度上升幅度最大,达到0.06℃/a,夏季平均温度上升的幅度最小,仅为0.03℃/a。松花江流域的年和四季的增温幅度远远高于全国和全球水平。因此,应采取积极措施应对气候变化带来的不利影响。Based on the daily series temperature observations from 34 meteorological stations over the period of 1958～2008,the interannual variation,change trend,and change magnitude of the average annual temperature in the Songhua River Basin were analyzed with multi-method of moving average method,non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the estimated sen slope method.The result showed that the average annual temperature of the Songhua River Basin tended to increase significantly during 1958～2008.The average annual temperature which underwent abrupt change in 1990 had risen about 2.0℃ during the past 51 years.In four seasons,the average temperature of winter increased at a faster rate（0.06℃/a）,whilst the average temperature of summer had the smallest increment-0.03℃/a.The increasing magnitude of average annual temperature in the Songhua River Basin was much greater than the national and global level.Therefore,effective measures should be considered to mitigate negative effects of climatic change.

关 键 词：松花江流域 平均温度 变化趋势 

分 类 号：S161.2[农业科学—农业气象学]