中国货币替代的测算、特征及影响因素实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Measurement、Features and Infective Factors of China's Currency Substitution

作　　者：刘玲[1] 蒋锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100010

出　　处：《南方金融》2011年第11期22-26,共5页South China Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(青年基金项目)<网络外部性动态局部均衡与一般均衡理论及应用研究>(项目编号:10YJC790167)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文运用货币替代率相对量指标对中国目前货币替代程度进行了测算,并依据该测算结果总结了中国货币替代特征,认为中国货币替代率整体水平不高且呈现出阶段性波动特征,货币反替代趋势和非对称双向替代现象明显。通过对中国货币替代率影响因素进行实证分析,本文得出如下结论:汇率、广义货币供给量、通胀率与货币替代率成正相关关系,国民生产总值与货币替代率反相关,本外币利差变化对货币替代率的影响不显著。This paper measures China＇s present currency substitution degree using the indicator of currency substitution relative rate and summarizes the features of China＇s currency substitution. According to the result, we find out that the total level of China＇s currency substitution rate is not high with periodic fluctuation, the trend of currency anti-substitution and dissymmetrieal two-way currency substitution is obvious. We can draw a conclusion by empirical analysis on influential factors of China＇s currency substitution rate： foreign exchange rate, M2 and inflation rate are positive correlated with currency substitution, GDP is negative correlated with currency substitution, the infection of gap of domestic and foreign currency interest rate on currency substitution is not prominent.

关 键 词：货币替代 货币替代率 货币反替代 资本外逃 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]