电网发展的阶段论  

On Stage of Power Grid Development

作　　者：胡列翔[1] 徐谦[1] 张全明[1] 赵荣祥[2] 甘德强[2] 吴浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省电力公司,杭州310007 [2]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江电力》2011年第12期9-11,73,共4页Zhejiang Electric Power

摘　　要：研究了日本和英国1960—2008年间的人均用电量和年用电量数据;基于Logistic模型,提出了电网发展将经历初始发展、快速发展、后发展和饱和发展4个阶段的电网发展阶段论;英国电网发展阶段划分及其输电网建设情况的相互参照表明,电网建设的高峰出现在快速发展和后发展转折点之前;根据电网发展的阶段论及浙江电网当前和负荷饱和时的电量数据,推断出浙江电网在"十二五"末、"十三五"初将会进入后发展阶段;电网发展阶段的科学划分为电网规划、建设、运行、维护等工作提供了决策依据。The data of electric power consumption per capita and annual electric power consumption of Japan and United Kingdom from 1960 to 2008 are analyzed. Based on Logistic model, this paper proposes that the development of grid will experience four stages, i.e., early developing stage, developing stage, post-developing stage and saturation developing stage. The division of developing stages of United Kingdom power grid and its construction history of transmission system indicate that the grid construction peak occurs before the turning point of developing and post-developing stages. According to stages of power grid development and Zhejiang grid＇s power consumptions at the current state and saturation state, it is inferred that Zhejiang grid will enter the post-developing stage between the end of the Twelfth Five-year Plan period and the beginning of the Thirteenth Five-year Plan period. The stage division provides the basis for decision-making on grid planning, construction, operation and maintenance.

关 键 词：电网发展 后发展阶段 饱和负荷 LOGISTIC模型 电网规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]