西部农业现代化发展水平的定量测评与实证分析  

Quantitative Evaluating and Empirical Analysis of Development Level of Agricultural Modernization in West China

作　　者：王国敏[1] 周庆元[1] 卢婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学政治学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第6期70-81,共12页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"中国特色农业现代化道路的实现模式研究"(08AJY003)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：科学合理的农业现代化测评体系和方法是正确判断农业现代化进程的基础,对了解地区农业现代化的发展现状和模式选择具有重要的现实意义。通过采用多指标综合测定法建立农业现代化综合评价指标体系,综合德尔菲法和层次分析法确定指标权重,对西部地区农业现代化的发展阶段与总体水平进行测算。研究发现,改革开放至今西部地区农业现代化增速较快,但整体水平仍落后于其他地区,仍处于农业现代化的起点阶段。由此进一步提出实现西部特色农业现代化道路的政策建议。The scientific and rational evaluating system and methods of agricultural modernization are significant for judging the process of agricultural modernization and for establishing the scientific agricultural modernization models.The paper designs a comprehensive evaluating index system by adopting multi-attribute measurement,and determines the index weight with Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.Using the test of samples from 31 provinces,the development stage and level of western agricultural modernization have been analyzed.From 1998 to 2008,though the western agricultural modernization maintained rapid growth,its overall level was still lagging behind other regions and was just in the beginning stage of agricultural modernization.Finally,the paper proposes some policy recommendations for realizing the characteristic agriculture in China.

关 键 词：西部地区 农业现代化 测评体系 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]