中国原料奶供给反应的实证研究——基于省际面板数据检验  

Empirical Study on Supply Response of China's Fresh Milk——An Investigation based on Provincial Panel

作　　者：刘威[1] 陈书章[1] 马恒运[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第2期50-54,共5页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国牛奶生产全要素生产率及技术投资政策研究"(G0305/70773037)

摘　　要：利用1992-2008年河北省、内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省等8个省份面板数据,使用扩展的Nerlovian模型,检验了原料奶供给的反应程度。结果表明:前期产量对原料奶供给的正向作用最大,单产、存栏和WTO规则的影响次之,技术进步的作用较小;饲料价格的反向作用明显,是阻碍产出增长的主要因素;原料奶收购价格缺乏弹性,其短期和长期供给弹性分别为0.109和0.773,均衡状态调整周期约为7.1年。Using the extended Nerlovian model,this paper examines the responsiveness of the fresh milk supply based on panel data of eight provinces in China from 1992 to 2008.The results show that yields of early days have the maximum positive impact on fresh milk supply followed by yield per cow,stocks and WTO rules,while the effect of technological progress is smaller.Feed price is the main factor that slows down fresh milk output and obviously has adverse effect.Fresh milk price is inelastic and its short-and long-term supply elasticities are 0.109 and 0.773,respectively,and equilibrium adjustment cycle is approximate 7 years.

关 键 词：原料奶生产 价格 供给弹性 Nerlovian模型 

分 类 号：F326.35[经济管理—产业经济]