福建省物流运输与农业经济增长的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Growth of Fujian Province’s Logistics Transportation and Agricultural Economy

作　　者：冯国治[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学人民武装学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报》2011年第4期32-34,共3页Journal of Anhui Business College

摘　　要：选取福建省1978—2010年的货运量、客运量和农业生产总值作为分析指标,在对时间序列进行平稳性检验后,对福建省货运量、客运量与农业生产总值进行Johansen协整分析,并对它们进行回归分析,然后对货运量和客运量与农业生产总值之间进行了Granger因果检验。实证结果表明,福建省农业生产总值的变动与货运量和客运量的变动密切相关,货运量的增长对农业经济的发展有显著的促进作用,同时农业经济的发展也积极带动了货运量和客运量的增长。This paper uses Fujian Province’s volume of goods traffic,volume of passenger traffic and gross agricultural production from 1978 to 2010 as the analysis indexes,carries out stationary test for time series,makes Johansen’s co-integration analysis as well as regression analysis on Fujian Province’s volume of goods traffic,volume of passenger traffic and gross agricultural production,and then does Granger causality test on them.The result of the empirical research shows that the change of Fujian Province’s gross agricultural production is closely related to that of Fujian’s volume of goods traffic as well as volume of passenger traffic,that is,the growth of Fujian’s volume of goods traffic as well as volume of passenger traffic play a prominent role in pushing the development of its agricultural economy and at the same time the development of Fujian’s agricultural economy helps the growth of its volume of goods traffic as well as volume of passenger traffic.

关 键 词：物流运输 农业经济 福建省 JOHANSEN协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F570.81[经济管理—产业经济]