基于蒙特卡洛法的配电网供电可靠性算法研究  

Arithmetic Analysis of Supply Reliability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：张慧[1] 李俊华[1] 董孝平[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州供电公司,郑州450006

出　　处：《电气技术》2011年第12期5-8,19,共5页Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：本文介绍了配电系统可靠性分析的基本方法,采用蒙特卡罗模拟法(MCS)分析简单的辐射型单端供电网络的可靠性及其相关指标,并与故障模拟后果分析法进行比较分析。并通过改变各元件参数、增加备用电源,分析影响负荷点指标和系统指标的因素,找出影响蒙特卡罗模拟法计算精度和可靠性的因素。The paper presents the basic analysis methods of the power distribution system reliability and analyzes the reliability and related indices with Monte Carlo Simulation（MCS） in a simple radiation distribution.The results are compared to the analysis of fault effect.The factors which can affect reliability are discussed by changing the parameters of components and increasing stand-by power supply and the key points to MCS methods calculation accuracy and reliability are identified.

关 键 词：配电网 蒙特卡罗模拟法 可靠性算法 指标分析 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]