我国货币政策信贷渠道的时变效应研究  

Study on time-variant effects of China's bank lending channel of monetary policy

作　　者：张依茹[1] 熊启跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期637-641,共5页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：武汉大学研究生自主科研项目(201110501020007)

摘　　要：货币政策的目标是在推动经济增长的同时,将物价稳定在可控水平.通过运用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型对2006年1月至2010年12月我国货币政策信贷渠道对经济增长和物价水平的影响进行分析,结果表明,我国货币政策信贷渠道对经济增长和物价水平的影响具有时变效应,并且,该效应与货币政策转向和信贷结构的变化息息相关.当我国货币政策处于紧缩性周期时,信贷投放中长期贷款的相对增速更快,且信贷投放对经济增长的拉动力度较大,对物价水平影响不显著;当货币政策处于扩张性周期,短期贷款的相对增速更快,信贷投放对经济增长的拉动力度减小,却导致物价水平上升.The monetary policy not only aims to boost the economic growth, but to keep the inflation under control. This paper, by making use of Markov Regime-Switching Vector Autoregressive model, examines the effects of China＇s bank lending channel on the economic growth and inflation level from Jan, 2006-Dec, 2010. The results show that the effects of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation are time-variant; the regime-switching is closely related to the term structure of loan. When the monetary policy is in period of contraction, the medium and long-term loan takes on a faster growth than short-term loan, which will boost the economic growth by having insignificant effects on inflation; Instead, when the monetary policy is in period of expansion, the short-term loan grows much faster which will reduce to less driving force on economic growth but higher pressure of inflation.

关 键 词：货币政策信贷渠道 经济增长 物价水平 时变效应 

分 类 号：F016[经济管理—政治经济学]