宏观税率对国债依存度影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Macro-tax rate to the Degree of Dependence of National Debt

作　　者：李冻菊[1] 乔晗[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学统计学系,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2011年第12期74-78,共5页Financial Theory and Practice

摘　　要：近年来,国内有些学者认为积极的财政政策应逐渐淡出,然而2008年国际金融危机的发生,使得我国在今后的一段时间内,将继续实施积极的财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,选取国债依存度Y为因变量,国债依存度的滞后一期Y1和宏观税率X1为自变量,通过协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,有效地揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果表明宏观税率对国债依存度存在着负向作用。本文通过以上结论,以期为政府继续实施积极财政政策,为保持我国经济平稳较快发展提供理论支持。Some scholars in China believe that the active fiscal policy should be stopped gradually in these years. However, because of the happening of the international financial crises, the central govern- ment will continue to implement the active fiscal policy. In this paper, we choose the period from the time when China began its reform and opening up to nowadays as the studying time section, take the na- tional debt dependence degree Y as the dependent variable, the national debt dependence degree Y1 and the macroscopic tax rate X1 as the independent variable, utilize co-integration theory, Granger causality test and other methods to reveal effectively the complex dependency relationship among the variables above by the regression analysis. The result showed that the macroscopic tax rate played a negative effect on the national debt dependence degree. According to the conclusions above, this paper hopes to provide theoretical support to maintain steady and rapid development with the active fiscal policy.

关 键 词：积极财政政策 国债依存度 宏观税率 协整理论 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]