基于贝叶斯公式的区域干旱综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Regional Drought Based on Bayesian Formula

作　　者：施晔[1,2] 梁忠民[1,2] 易知之[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电》2011年第12期19-21,共3页Water Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(200901022)

摘　　要：为准确评价区域干旱,进而为防旱抗旱提供科学依据,针对区域干旱综合评价中存在的不确定性因素,提出了基于贝叶斯公式的区域干旱随机评价方法。该方法通过贝叶斯框架计算各评价指标属于某个干旱等级的概率,并确定单个干旱指标的评价结果,最终得到区域干旱等级。以徐州地区干旱评价为示例,将该方法评价结果与模糊综合评价结果进行对比,结果表明,该法计算简便,评价结果合理,且精度较好。In order to accurately evaluate regional drought and thus to establish scientific basis for drought mitigation, a stochastic method for regional comprehensive drought evaluation based on Bayesian Formula is proposed. Under the Bayesian theory＇s frame, the probability of each classification is calculated for each drought index and the evaluation result for each drought index is obtained, and then the regional drought grade is finally got. Taking Xuzhou region as an example, the evaluation is compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the result shows that the stochastic method based on Bayesian Formula is Key Words：

关 键 词：综合评价 区域干旱 贝叶斯公式 徐州地区 

分 类 号：O211.5[理学—概率论与数理统计]