基于故障树分析的区域粮食安全风险因子识别和分类  

Identification and classification of risk factors of regional grain security based on fault tree analysis

作　　者：起晓星[1] 刘黎明[1] 刘亚彬[1] 王莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2011年第12期1-6,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD20B07);国家自然科学基金课题(40871156)

摘　　要：区域粮食安全是国家宏观粮食安全的基础。该文运用故障树法对影响中国粮食供需安全的风险因子进行了定性识别,建立了粮食安全风险因子识别的指标体系;在此基础上,提出风险系数法对区域粮食安全风险因子进行定量识别。该文以湖南省洞庭湖区为例进行了实证分析,并依据各风险因子风险来源的不同对它们进行分类,建立了风险因子的分类体系。结果表明:自然灾害、耕地资源约束、水资源约束、劳动力短缺、农药和化肥投入成本约束、人均粮食消费量变化、收入水平变化、人口数量变化是影响该区域粮食安全的主要风险因子。研究的结果可以为相关部门的政策制定提供客观依据,也能为进一步开展粮食安全风险评估奠定基础。Regional food security is the basis of national general food security. In this paper, risk factors of food supply and demand in China were qualitatively identified by using fault tree method, and after that the identification indexes system of risk factors of food security was established. Based on the qualitative identification, was risk coefficient method to quantitatively identify risk factors of regional food security was. Meanwhile, a case study was carried out in Dongting Lake area in Hunan Province, and the risk factors were classified according to their different risk sources. The results showed that： natural disasters, farmland resource constraints, water constraints, labor shortage, input cost constraints of fertilizers and pesticides, food consumption changes per capita, income changes, population change were the risk factors of food security in Dongting Lake area. The result can provide strong and relevant evidence for regional policy makers. Based on the results, risk assessment for food security also can be carried out.

关 键 词：粮食供应 故障树 识别 粮食安全 风险因子 风险系数 

分 类 号：S126[农业科学—农业基础科学]