江苏夏季逐月高温日数与西太平洋海温场相关分析及预测模型建立  

Study on Remote Correlation Between Summer Monthly High Temperature Days in Jiangsu and West Pacific SST and Its Long-Term Prediction Models

作　　者：刘梅[1] 高苹[1] 王静苒[1] 俞剑蔚[1] 曹舒娅[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象》2011年第12期1553-1559,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局研究型业务项目(YW200603);江苏省气象局开放基金项目(200704)共同资助

摘　　要：夏季高温的发生是多个因子共同作用的综合反映,其中大气环流背景对高温的出现起到重要作用,而根据海气相互作用的研究,海温变化和大气环流之间有一定相关关系,决定了海温对陆上温度具有一定的可预报性。基于此原理基础,本文利用1978—2007年30年西太平洋海温和江苏各区域的高温日数资料,运用区域平均方法、场相关分析法,探讨了与江苏不同地区区域平均高温日数相关的强信号海区,分析了利用海温进行逐月高温日数预报的可能性。然后运用最优化相关处理技术将西太平洋海温作为长期预报因子,建立了江苏不同区域夏季逐月高温日数长期预测模型,模型均通过了α=0.01显著性水平检验,拟合效果理想,同时并进行了实际预报试验,预报效果较好,可以投入业务使用。此研究对江苏高温的长期预报及高温灾害服务具有重要指导意义。The occurrence of summer high temperature is the comprehensive reflection of joint actions of several factors,in which atmospheric circulation background plays an important role in high-temperature events.According to the study of air-sea interaction,there are maybe some feedback relations between SST change and atmospheric circulation,which determine the certain predictability of land temperature using SST.Based on this principle,with the 30-year（1978—2007） West Pacific SST,and the numbers of high temperature days of different time,the strong signal sea area related to average high temperature days of different regions of Jiangsu is explored by using regional average method,field correlation analysis and optimization correlation processing technology.Setting West Pacific SST as the long-term forecast factor, the long-term forecast models of summer monthly high temperature days in different areas of Jiangsu are established.These models all pass through the significance level ofα=0.01,and the effects of fitting are good.Experiments of practical forecast are carried out with good effects,and can be put into meteorological operations.The study has important guiding significance for service on the long-term forecast of high temperature and high temperature disasters in Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：夏季高温 太平洋海温 相关分析 最优化处理技术 预测模型 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]