城市生命线系统的地震网络可靠性研究  

Research on seismic network reliability of urban lifelines system

作　　者：操铮[1] 刘茂[1] 许同生[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2011年第6期32-39,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ16B03-08;2006BAJ16B08)

摘　　要：震后生命线系统的网络可靠性对于灾后的应急救援和恢复至关重要,因此,评价城市生命线系统网络在一定地震强度下,网络系统保持连通的能力已成为研究生命线地震网络可靠性的重要内容。以经典的系统单元可靠性模型为基础,在众多的网络可靠性计算方法中根据方法实现的难易程度和计算效率,选择采用了不交化穷举集合法和有序二分决策图方法,比较研究了网络系统的可靠性问题,并与Monte Carlo方法进行了对照。此外,针对淮南市配水管网的实际案例,采用上述方法计算了相应的可靠度,计算结果表明,所提方法能够高效地应用于一般的工程实践,具有显著的实用意义。Lifelines＇ network reliability after earthquake is vital to emergency rescue and recovery,therefore,assessment of urban lifelines system＇s connecting ability under certain earthquake excitation becomes important aspect of lifelines＇ seismic reliability.Based on classical reliability model for system components,among several methods for calculating reliability,the authors chose disjoint exhaustive collection method and ordered binary decision diagram method according to the effectiveness and difficulty of different methods,and verified their precision using Monte Carlo simulation.Additionally,by using the method mentioned above,the authors calculated corresponding reliability of Huainan water supply system.The results indicate that the methods presented can be applied to general practices with good precisions.

关 键 词：网路可靠性 生命线 不交化穷举集合 有序二分决策图 MonteCarlo法 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] X4[天文地球—固体地球物理学]