利用欧洲数值预报产品制作哈尔滨市七日天气预报  

Making Harbin's seven-day temperature forecast system by use of Europe numerical weather forecast products

作　　者：刘艳华[1] 张少锋 张治[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象服务中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150036 [2]哈尔滨市气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2011年第6期185-190,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：阐述了利用已有数值预报产品和NCEP历史资料通过相似方法制作哈尔滨市24～168h的七日天气预报(包括降水、最高气温、最低气温)。根据高空形势场、地面形势场和物理量场相同条件下,其天气现象一般相同的天气学原理,将高空预报形势场与历史形势场作形、值相似比较,筛选出关系较好的相似个例,导出相似个例的要素,以其作为预报日的要素预报参考,并结合T639降水量预报和日本降水数值预报作出降水的综合预报。By use of existing numerical prediction products,the NCEP historical data and similarity methods,the making of Harbin City＇s 7 day＇s（24~168h） weather forecast（including precipitation,maximum temperature and minimum temperature） was explored.Based on that if the high altitude situation field,ground situation field and,physical quantity field are same,the weather phenomenon is also same in view of synoptic theory,we used relevant similarity of altitude situation field and historical situation field in shape and value,screened examples with better similarity,and derived elements of the similar examples,taking them as elements forecast reference,and combining T639 precipitation forecast and Japan precipitation numerical prediction,the precipitation comprehensive forecast was made.

关 键 词：数值天气预报 最高/最低温度 预报场 相似度 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]