艾比湖流域降水与径流变化特征分析  

Trend Analysis of the Precipitation and Runoff in Ebinur Lake Basin

作　　者：刘世薇[1,2,3] 周华荣[1] 梁雪琼[1,3] 李玉霞[1,3] 巴乌龙[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2011年第5期21-25,共5页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40271011)

摘　　要：以艾比湖流域的博尔塔拉河(博河)和精河为例,基于1961-2008年的水文气象数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、线性倾向估计、小波分析等方法,分析流域内2条河流的变化趋势及周期特征,得到以下结论:(1)48年来,艾比湖流域博乐站和精河站降水量均呈现增加的趋势,其中,博乐站的线性倾向斜率为8.54mm/10年;精河站的线性倾向斜率为12.74mm/10年。(2)博河和精河年径流量均呈现极显著的增加趋势,其Z值分别为2.42和2.45,两者均通过а=0.05显著性检验。(3)艾比湖流域年降水量序列的小波系数等值线分布比较密集,存在明显的小波系数高低值中心震荡。两站年降水量在48年的时间序列中存在多个周期。(4)流域内2条河流均有明显的周期性变化,尤其以年代际周期最为显著。在每个周期中径流量又经历了几次"丰枯"交替。(5)博河和精河2条河流径流量与降水量的相关系数分别为0.564和0.490,均通过a=0.01的R显著性检验,表明降水是流域径流量的重要补给源之一。As a demonstration from the two rivers of the Ebinur lake basin,the paper checked the periodic characteristics and change trend of annual runoff processes and annual precipitation from 1961 to 2008 by using the Mann-Kendall test,line analyze and the wavelet analysis method.The main conclusions were as follows：（1）The trend of precipitation was increasing in Boertala river and Jinghe river of Ebinur lake basin during the 48 years.The average trends of Boertala station was 8.54 mm/10 a and the average trends of Jinghe station was 12.74 mm/10 a.（2）The runoff trend of Boertala river and Jinghe river was increasing.The value of Z,which passed the salience test of 0.05,was 2.42 and 2.45.（3）Wavelet coefficient for annual precipitation at the Ebinur lake basin was denseness.The wavelet coefficient for annual precipitation shook at the middle.The precipitation of two stations had the 15-years periodic during the 48 years.（4）The two rivers had the salience change of periodic.The runoff had many alternations at every periodic scale.（5）The correlation coefficient of Boertala river and Jinghe river was 0.564 and 0.490,which passed the R salience test of 0.01.The result indicated that the precipitation was one of the most important staging headstreams of annual runoff.

关 键 词：径流 降水 变化趋势 艾比湖流域 

分 类 号：P332.1[天文地球—水文科学] P333.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]