地震危险性分析中常见地震发生概率模型的合理性及局限性研究  

STUDY ON RATIONALITY AND LIMITATION OF COMMON PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS

作　　者：龚平[1] 曾心传[1] 罗延钟[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地震研究所,武汉430071 [2]中国地质大学,武汉430074

出　　处：《地震研究》2000年第1期57-62,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：自本世纪六十年代末工程地震危险性概率分析法产生以来 ,地震发生的概率模型在工程抗震中开始受到极大的重视。人们企图尽可能客观地刻画地震事件序列以降低主观认识所造成的不确定性 ,提出了许多概率模型 ,并对这些模型进行了极为广泛的研究和探讨。笔者认为这些探讨中大多数研究者们限于对计数特征与时间特征的探讨和计算简化处理 ,很少同时从概率统计、地震事件资料特征和工程近似三者的合理性角度去分析这些模型的合理性与局限性。本文从此角度出发分析自均匀Poisson模型 (C .A .Cornell,196 8)以来常见地震发生概率模型的合理性与局限性。The probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence have been paid a great attention in earthquake engineering since probabilistic risk analysis of engineering earthquake was put forward towards the end of the 1960s. Many probabilistic models, which were developed to earthquake engineering, perhaps greatly improved some comprehensions about seismic sequence and reduced the uncertainty of seismic hazard. However, we think that most researchers only pay attention to the counting and time characteristics of seismic sequence and simplification of calculation, and almost no one has analyzed rationality and limitation of these models simultaneously from probabilistic statistics, the features of seismic data and engineering approximation. In this paper, the rationality and limitation of common probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence since Poison's probabilistic model offered by C. A. Cornel in 1968 are analyzed from above considerations, and we hope that our preliminary results will bring attention in use.

关 键 词：地震 危险性 地震发生 概率模型 合理性 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] P315.8[天文地球—固体地球物理学]