公众风险感知的定量计算方法与应用研究  

Quantitative calculation method of the public awareness of the risk and its application

作　　者：孟博[1,2] 刘茂[1] 李栋学[3] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]沈阳农业大学土地与环境学院,沈阳110866 [3]天津高速公路集团有限公司,天津300384

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第6期219-222,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题项目(200603746006);国家自然科学基金重点项目(70833003)

摘　　要：结合风险感知影响因子的研究,通过对风险的概念性剖析,将客观与主观性概念相整合提出了一个相对简单,但具有较强应用性的方法并应用于风险感知的定量化研究中。模型是通过定量的方式表达出人们的风险厌恶和风险接受等心理上的风险特征。该方法整合了个体风险效率R_(eff)和相对感知影响因子(PAF)的权重平均值,模型的核心理念是基于心理测量范式方法。在模型中给每一个PAF分配1个相关权重以代表其影响力大小。权重值的量化过程通过目标一组的方式(如专家、大众)或者心理测量范式的方法进行。对可选择性的PAF生成过程与权重值的计算方法进行了详细阐述。同时,利用专家工作组的数据进行了真实性检验。检验结果表明:模型能够应用于标准化与技术性的个体风险感知定量分析,如用于改善并加强专家与大众之间的风险沟通,减小他们之间的风险感知差异等;另外,该方法能够解释风险感知水平的差异是如何形成的,但并不能解释为什么形成了这样的差异。该结构化的计算模型的建立过程既没有过多地考虑社会-文化因子,也没有考虑历史背景,因为这两个影响因子的影响是十分微弱的。The paper is inclined to provide a quantitative calculation method of the public awareness of the risk and its application, which represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question whether risk awareness can be quantified by proposing a simple but applicable method. Facing a risk or a hazard, it would be better to take a novel approach, that is, a desire to face the danger bravely and try to quantify all the factors involved into full account. The new approach of ours is based on the psychometric paradigm method to integrate into the weighted mean of the related affecting factors（PAF）and the effective individual risk （Reff）. The underlying fields of application are quantification of risk awareness by individuals in a formal and technical way, viz. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of the experts and non-experts, reducing the differences of risk awareness between them. Therefore, the paper has done a detailed account of the cover voluntaries of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency awareness. Furthermore, the new approach has endowed each individual weight with a PAF to represent its impact magnitude and subject it to a plausibility check by using data from an expertise. However, when making a decision, this model has to be used with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation, because the formation process of the model ignores any socio-cultural factors and historical background factors. The reason is that such factors are not essential for the calculation.

关 键 词：风险管理 风险感知 定量分析 风险感知影响因子 权重 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]