基于GARP的马铃薯癌肿病在中国适生性分析  

Potential distributions for Synchytrium endobioticum(Schilberszky) Percival with GARP ecological niche model

作　　者：李炳清 刘志文[2] 曾华[1] 刘子莹[2] 季林鹏 袁继平 蒋军喜[2] 王建国[2] 

机构地区：[1]惠州出入境检验检疫局,广东惠州516006 [2]江西农业大学农学院植物保护系,南昌330045 [3]惠东县九华农贸有限公司,广东惠东516300

出　　处：《江西植保》2011年第4期145-150,共6页Jiangxi Plant Protection

基　　金：广东出入境检验检疫局"惠州市马铃薯出口基地主要病虫害监测体系及应急预案研究"资助(GDK26);广东惠州市科技局"惠州市马铃薯出口基地主要病虫害监测体系及应急预案研究"项目资助

摘　　要：本文对马铃薯癌肿病生物学特性等方面进行综述,通过分析该病害的传播和定殖规律,并采用GARP生态位模型分析预测该病害在中国的潜在地理分布,参照国际上有害生物危险性分析方法,对马铃薯癌肿病在中国的危险性作出综合评价。结果表明,马铃薯癌肿病的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区,因此仍会继续在中国扩散;中国中东部的广大地区是马铃薯癌肿病最易入侵的地区,应采取措施防止其入侵。危险性综合评价值为2.163,在中国的危害风险性很大。The paper was the overview of the biological characteristics of Synchytrium endobioticum （Schilberszky） Percival. The paper made a comprehensive evaluation of the danger of Synchytrium endobioticum in China with analyzing the spread and colonization law of this disease and referring to the international pest risk analysis method, as well as using GARP ecological niche model to analyze and forecast the potential geographical distribution of the disease in China. The results showed that the potential invasion area of Synchytrium endobioticum （Schilberszky） Percival was much greater than the actual distribution area. Consequently, the disease would continue to spread in China. In addition, the vast area in the middle and eastern part of China could be the most vulnerable area to be invaded of the Synchytrium endobioticum, therefore, relevant departments should take measures to prevent the invasion. The comprehensive evaluation of the disease＇s danger was 2.163, which was of great hazard risk in China.

关 键 词：马铃薯癌肿病 适生性分析 中国 GARP生态位模型 

分 类 号：S435.32[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]