梯度发展模式下中国区域碳排放的演化趋势——基于空间分析的视角  

Dynamics of China's Regional Carbon Emissions under Gradient Economic Developing Mode:A view of Spatial analysis

作　　者：林伯强 黄光晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]新华都商学院,福建福州350108 [2]厦门大学,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第12期35-46,共12页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金："中国低碳应对专题研究"的阶段性成果;新华都商学院能源经济与低碳发展研究院低碳项目;国家社科基金重大项目(09&ZD050);国家社科基金重点项目(08AJY022);教育部重大项目(10JZD0018);中国博士后科学基金(项目编号:20100470873)

摘　　要：我们采用空间计量模型对梯度发展模式下的中国区域碳排放空间特点进行分析,研究发现,中国区域碳排放存在较强的空间相关和空间收敛特征,而且由于现有梯度发展模式强化了空间集聚效应,导致中国区域碳排放呈现"俱乐部收敛"的特征。进一步我们分析了未来中国区域碳排放份额的变化趋势,指出政府在下一步减排政策的制定中应把握区域碳排放的演化趋势,通过建立碳交易市场或碳税等区域碳排放平衡机制,才能更加公平有效地实现中国碳减排目标,同时更好地促进中国区域社会经济的平衡发展。In this paper, we adopt spatial econometrics approach to analyze the spatial characteristics of China＇s regional carbon emissions under its gradient economic developing mode. The results indicate that carbon emis- sions show strong spatial dependence and convergence across regions. Specifically, carbon emissions of different regions in China are characterized by club convergence, as the country＇s gradient developing mode has enhanced the spatial agglomeration effects. Then we turn to the evolving trends of regional emission shares and propose that governments should take regional emissions into account when making emission reduction policies, and it is also necessary to set up a regional emission balancing mechanism like carbon taxes or carbon trading market. Only in this way can China achieve the emission reduction target and better push the balance development of its regional social economy.

关 键 词：碳排放 梯度发展模式 空间计量经济学 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F224