区域地震灾害承载力评价的突变模型  

Catastrophe Model for Evaluating Regional Earthquake-disaster-carrying Capability

作　　者：刘朝峰[1,2] 苏经宇[1] 王威[1] 田杰[2] 王志涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第11期8-15,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助(2011M500199);中国人民财产保险股份公司灾害研究基金资助(2011D02);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2009BAJ28B04;2011BAK07B012;011BAJ08B03;2011BAJ08B05)

摘　　要：为提高区域地震灾害承载力评价的准确性,基于拓扑学与系统论的基本原理,运用突变理论,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价突变模型。首先,在区域地震灾害承载力与突变理论结合分析的基础上,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价指标体系;其次,进行原始数据标准化处理;接着采用相应的突变归一公式和突变原则进行递归计算区域地震灾害承载力突变隶属值,并与评判标准比较得其地震灾害承载力等级;最后计算29个城市的地震灾害承载力,并将所得计算结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法所得结果进行比较。结果表明,该方法评价结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法的评价结果基本一致。In order to enhance the accuracy of regional disaster-carrying capability assessment,based on the basic principles of topology and system theory,the catastrophe evaluation model of regional disaster-carrying capability is proposed.Firstly,evaluation indexes of regional disaster-carrying capacity are constructed on the basis of combinative analysis of regional disaster-carrying capability and catastrophe theory.Secondly,the raw data is standardized.Thirdly,a recursive calculation is carried out to get the catastrophic affiliated functional value of regional disaster-carrying capability by the corresponding normalized formulas and mutation principles,and the level of regional disaster-carrying capacity is obtained comparing the catastrophic affiliated functional value with the criteria level.Finally,the regional disaster-carrying capability of 29 cities are calculated and analyzed,and the calculation results are compared with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.The comparison results show the results obtained by the method are basically consistent with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.

关 键 词：突变级数法(CPM) 区域 地震灾害承载力 指标体系 评价方法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]