新疆易灾暴雨的风险区划  

Risk Zoning of Torrential Rain Which Easily Causes Damage in Xinjiang Region

作　　者：王慧[1] 毛炜峄[1] 李元鹏[1] 余行杰[1] 白素琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2011年第6期1407-1413,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国气象局2009年业务建设项目"暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划"资助

摘　　要：将降水量作为新疆易灾暴雨的风险区划指标,对新疆106个气象站1961年以来4-9月的暴雨(≥24mm)降水过程进行分析,确定不同时间尺度各级易灾暴雨的临界致灾雨量指标.选用降水强度和频次来表征易灾暴雨的危险性,利用加权综合评价法和GIS中自然断点分级法,将致灾暴雨的危险性指数按高、次高、中等、次低、低危险区5个等级进行区划.区划结果表明:新疆特殊地形决定了新疆易灾暴雨的高危险区和次高危险区主要分布在阿尔泰山、塔尔巴哈台山、巴尔鲁克山和天山山前地带,即阿勒泰地区、塔城盆地、伊犁河谷、天山山区及其两侧山前地带以及南疆西部山区,而古尔班通古特沙漠和塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地及其周边地区、吐鄯托盆地为低危险区.Using precipitation as a zoning factor of torrential rain which easily causes damage,processes of torrential rain（≥24 mm） from April to September of 106 meteorology stations in Xinjiang Region were analyzed,then the indexes of precipitation which easily causes damage with different time scales and hierarchies were determined.Using intensity and frequency of precipitation to represent the risk of torrential rain which easily causes damage,with the method of weighted synthesis evaluation and natural breakpoint classification method from GIS,the torrential rain was divided into 5 hierarchies： high,secondary high,medium,secondary low and low.It is found that： because of the special terrain,the high and secondary high damage areas are mainly located in Altay Mountains,Taerbahatai Mountain,Baerluke Mountain and the front part of Tianshan Mountains,including Altay Municipality,Tacheng Basin,Yili Vally,major Tianshan Mountains and their piedmonts and the western mountainous areas in South Xinjiang Region.Meanwhile,low damage areas are located in the middles and surrounding areas of Gurbant ngg t Desert and Taklimakan Desert,together with Turpan-Shanshan-Toksun Depression.

关 键 词：新疆 易灾 暴雨 危险性 区划 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]