多气象因素组合的输电线路风险分析  

Risk Analysis Method for Transmission Line Combining of Various Meteorological Factors

作　　者：熊小伏[1] 王尉军[1] 于洋[2] 沈智健[1] 程韧俐[2] 戴志勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400030 [2]广东电网公司深圳供电局,深圳518020

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2011年第6期11-15,28,共6页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50777068);重庆大学输配电国家重点实验室资助项目(2007DA10512709202)

摘　　要：气象因素对输电线路故障率及电网可靠性有着重要影响,鉴于气象因素的多变性及复杂性,该文建立了计及不同气象等级和不同气象因素的输电线路故障率模型,提出一种基于灰色模糊理论的多气象因素组合的输电线路风险分析方法。该方法将8种气象条件作为评判因素,建立了包含4个评判等级的输电线路风险等级评判体系。通过三角隶属度函数来描述评判因素与风险等级间的模糊关系,并引入点灰度来描述模糊关系的不可信程度。在此基础上进行灰色模糊综合评判,得到了更贴近实际的评判结果,为输电线路风险预警及维修决策提供依据。最后以某供电局为例进行风险分析,验证了该方法的有效性。Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by meteorological factors. In view of the complexity and variability of meteorological factors, this paper presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different meteorological condition with different meteorological grades, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple meteorological factors based on gray fuzzy theory. This method takes eight meteorological conditions as an evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including four evaluation grades. Triangular membership function is built up to describe the fuzzy relation among evaluation factors and risk grades, and the incredible degree of fuzzy relation is described by gray scale value of pixel. Based on the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

关 键 词：输电线路 气象等级 故障率 灰色模糊 风险分析 

分 类 号：TM755[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]