区域地质灾害气象预警效果评价  

EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION ON METEOROLOGICAL EARLY WARNING OF REGIONAL GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS

作　　者：温铭生[1,2] 王连俊[1] 连建发[2] 刘艳辉[2] 唐灿[2] 李铁锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2011年第6期839-843,共5页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2006BAC04B01)

摘　　要：中国(国家级)地质灾害气象预警工作自2003年起已经开展8a,共制作地质灾害预警产品1281份,预警效果如何需要开展相应评价。本文在前人研究基础上,分析以往地质灾害预警准确率评价方法和评价结果,提出国家级地质灾害预警准确率效果评价体系,认为评价地质灾害预警准确率效果分为预警时间、预警空间、预警强度3个方面,分别建立了预警时间、空间、强度和综合评价模型,并针对2008年7月和2009年7月的预警结果进行准确率评价,结果显示:2008年7月的预警准确率为16.57%,2009年7月的预警准确率为24.51%。评价结果与现阶段的工作研究程度基本一致,验证了该方法的可用性和适用性,预警"时间、空间、强度"及综合的预警效果评价模型符合目前我国小比例尺的地质灾害气象预警成效评价工作,可以用于国家级及省级地质灾害预警效果评价。The meteorological early warning of geo-hazards has worked for eight years since 2003.The China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring has gained 1281 early warning products.Based on the former products and accuracy methods,this paper establishes an integrated evaluation system for the effectiveness of geological hazard early warning in China.The warning has three elements including early warning time,space and magnitude.Three models are established.The accuracies of geo-hazards early warning in the July of 2008 and the July of 2009 are 16.57% and 24.51%,respectively.These results are just the same as the fact nowadays or in the near future.The integrated evaluation system model includes the time,space,and magnitude of geological hazard early warning effectiveness.This model introduced in this paper is feasible and practicable,which accords with the current level of national and provincial.Therefore it can be applicable to evaluating the level of geo-hazard early warning.

关 键 词：地质灾害 预警 准确率 效果评价 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]