基于STRIPAT模型的上海市能源消费影响因素研究  

A Study on Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in Shanghai Based on STRIPAT Model

作　　者：姜磊[1] 季民河[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院

出　　处：《上海环境科学》2011年第6期240-244,共5页Shanghai Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目,编号:40671074

摘　　要：上海市能源资源极为匮乏，能源问题是制约上海市经济发展的重要瓶颈。为研究上海市能源消费的影响因素，基于STRIPAT模型，采用岭回归方法，对1985-2008年上海市能源消费的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明，人口、富裕度、技术进步，第二产业、固定资产投资、开放度均促使了上海市能源消费的增加；从估计的弹性系数来看，人口数量是影响上海市能源消费的最主要因素，其次是第二产业，再次是对外开放度，富裕度、技术进步和固定资产投资对上海市能源消费的影响作用不是太大。针对研究结果提出了建议。Energy resource is so scarce in Shanghai that has become a bottleneck to restrict its economic growth. A ridge regression was used to analyse influencing factors of the energy consumption in Shanghai from 1985 till 2008. The results demonstrated that factors of the population, affluence, technological progress, secondary industry, fixed assets investment and openness degree could all cause an increase in energy consumption in Shanghai. In the view of estimated elastic coefficients, the population was the most major factor to influence the energy consumption in Shanghai, and secondary industry stood the next followed by openness degree, whilst the other factors would have less effects. Finally, some suggestions were given.

关 键 词：能源消费 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 岭回归分析 上海市 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]